
Back on track in what was a really nice betting card during Week 14 of the regular season. Our two losses consisted of a game in which we hedged some of our position and the other (Lions/Bears over). I’m still puzzled about how that didn’t get to the window. A winning week is a winning week, so you won’t find any complaints from me.
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Last week’s record: 3-2-1, +1.30 units
Season record: 35-37-1, -2.95 units, -3.8% ROI
This is a tough week, and I am only starting with four (three and a half?) bets, but at least two more plays are a half point of movement away from being added to the card. Will we see those numbers? I’m not sure, but hopefully, so keep tabs on my X/Twitter (@amock419) for any added plays. I’ve managed to have a play on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday this week, so while the card isn’t large, it’s spread out. Good luck to us!
NFL Week 15 Best Bets
Please make sure to shop around at various sportsbooks for the best possible number. Over the course of the season, a half point here or five cents there will add up.
Worst line to bet is the final number that I would make a bet at. For example, if I bet under 49.5 and the “worst line to bet” is 49 -110, I would not make that bet at 48.5 -110 or 49 -115.
All bets are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs unless otherwise noted. All odds from BetMGM and locked when the pick was made.
Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
No Justin Herbert takes all the life — or what little was left — out of this Chargers offense. They couldn’t move the ball with one of the more talented quarterbacks in the league; what’s going to happen without him? Keenan Allen is out for this one as well so the Chargers are hurting on the offensive side of the ball. Now, the Raiders aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, and Davante Adams has been under the weather. Josh Jacobs is also questionable. I’m betting on Aidan O’Connell doing more than Easton Stick, and if this weren’t a standalone game, I’d tell you to do something else with your time and check the box score afterward. This game could be ugly. But go, Raiders!
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Worst line to bet: Raiders -3 (-110)
Detroit Lions -4 (-110) vs. Denver Broncos
I’ve been a little higher on the Broncos than the market lately, but not here. This is a good matchup advantage for the Lions on both sides of the ball. Per TruMedia, Jared Goff is third in EPA/Dropback against Cover-3, and the Broncos are a heavy Cover-3 defense. As for the Lions’ defense, my model isn’t a fan, but Russell Wilson has a below-average success rate on dropbacks against Cover-2 and Quarters. You guessed it, the Lions are top 10 in the league in the frequency of running those coverages. I think the Lions bounce back in a big way this week.
Worst line to bet: Lions -4 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons -3 (-110) at Carolina Panthers (to win 0.5 units)
Atlanta’s injury report isn’t great as of publication, but I will start to build a position here. If things trend in the right direction, I might increase this to a full unit play later in the week so stay tuned. I don’t need to comment much on the Panthers’ offense because they’re by far the worst in the league, but I think their run defense can be exploited by the Falcons. We all know Arthur Smith loves his run concepts and should be able to scheme up some good looks to make life easier for the passing game.
Worst line to bet: Falcons -3 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles -4 (-110) at Seattle Seahawks
There are some 3.5s out there if you want to pick those off, but -4 will be available to everyone, so that’s what I’ll be grading. The Eagles have had a gauntlet of a schedule over the last month and a half so the Seahawks should have some relief. Geno Smith is questionable, and if he can go, a groin injury could keep him from navigating the pocket to his full ability. The Eagles defense should be able to feast on him or Drew Lock, whoever gets the start. My number is 4.5 with Smith starting, so we have some room here even if we don’t get Drew Lock.
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Worst line to bet: Eagles -4 (-110)
Tennessee Titans -3 (-105) vs. Houston Texans
I will take a chance and grab some Titans here as C.J. Stroud is in the concussion protocol. Not only are the Texans at risk of not having their quarterback, but they’ll likely be missing guys up and down the roster. I think taking the Titans at this number has a lot of upside.
Worst line to bet: Titans -3 (-115)
Added Saturday
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints under 39 (-110)
Worst line to bet: Under 38.5 (-110)
Teaser watch
I recommend playing two-team, six-point teasers at -120 odds, not higher.
Season record: 6-5, +0.0 units, +0.0% ROI
KC -1.5/LA Rams -0.5
(Photo of Jared Goff: Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)
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