NFL Week 5 survivor pool picks and strategy: Selecting the Commanders, Dolphins and Lions

Read The Athletic’s NFL survivor pool picks for Week 12

We have some good news for you, and we have some bad news for you. Let’s start with the good news, because we like to be positive around here.

The good news is if you made it to Week 4 in your survivor pool there is a very strong chance you also made it through to Week 5 given last week’s results. Nine of the 10 highest win probability teams going into Week 4 ended up winning their games, while the only loser in that group (New Orleans) was picked by less than one percent of the participants in the most popular pools. So unless you were among that 0.5 percent that picked New Orleans, congratulations on all of your continued success.

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Along with that, nine of the 10 most popular picks last week ended up winning their games with only Pittsburgh (picked in 3.2 percent of pools) losing.

Now for the bad news. This week might be a little bit more of a challenge because we have fewer games to pick from (bye weeks) and there are not a lot of heavy favorites on the schedule.

Teams previously “used”: Baltimore, Buffalo, Kansas City, San Francisco.

These were the highest percentage rostered teams through Week 4. Though we won’t be writing up these elite picks anymore, you may still have them available in your pool. With Baltimore and Kansas City on the road, Buffalo technically ‘home’ in London, and SF hosting Dallas, none of them are great options to burn this week.

Week 5 strategy

Renee Miller: Coming off a week when all the biggest favorites and popular picks came through is a relief after the dicey Week 3. As we’re into the bye weeks now, our options are even more limited, but this week still feels easy. We’ve only got three games with a spread of six points or more (Washington vs. Chicago, Detroit vs. Carolina, Miami vs. the Giants). All three favorites are home in non-divisional games.

I enjoy talking about the psychology and science behind decision-making when I think there’s potential to ‘mis-think’ a pick, but no one’s going to do that this week, are they? Coming off lots of easy survivor wins in Week 4, I think you should pick a Tier 2 favorite here that you won’t regret burning over the next few weeks.

Adam Gretz: On one hand, I do very much agree with Renee that your picks for this week are probably looking like easy selections. The heaviest favorites (Washington, Detroit, Miami) are probably teams you still have sitting there at your disposal and in some cases might not be teams that have the best future value.

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My concern is I am not sure how much I trust any of those heaviest favorites outside of maybe Miami against a Giants team that just looks absolutely dreadful across the board. And if you have by some chance already burned one of those teams (like, say, taking Washington in Week 1 over Arizona) that thins your potential options down even more.

If you do not trust any of those heavy favorites, or have already used some of them, you still have the “pick against Arizona” option on the table and going with the Cincinnati Bengals.

Week 5 chalk pick

TeamOpponentPick %Spread

vs. Panthers

37.9%

-9.5

vs. Giants

36.2%

-10.5

vs. Bears

6.1%

-5.5

at Cardinals

6%

-3

vs. Jaguars

3.5%

-5.5

Pick projections from OfficeFootballPool. Lines from BetMGM.

Adam: Commanders over Bears

This probably says more about the current state of the Bears than it does the Commanders, but let’s go with it.

The Commanders are the second-largest favorite of the week (more than a touchdown), are playing a Bears team that has lost 14 games in a row and is only 1-17 over its past 18 games dating back to last season and have the added bonus of getting that team at home on a short week. That is to say nothing of the dysfunction and turmoil that oozed out of the Bears’ facility this season.

Is Washington a team that I would normally look at as an extremely confident and safe pick? Not particularly. The Commanders are solid, and Sam Howell has shown some real progress, but it is still not a great team by any stretch. And even though “any given Sunday rules” always apply in the NFL, this seems like it is probably as close to a “should win” game as an NFL team should have this season.

Renee: Dolphins over Giants

Not surprisingly, the spread on this game has already increased following a disastrous Monday Night Football appearance by the Giants. Miami is the 10.5-point favorite, catching the Giants coming off an 11-sack, three-turnover game in which only three points were scored by New York. Miami’s defense isn’t great — it’s better than Seattle’s — but this is a team that’s winning with its offense. Despite losing to Buffalo in Week 4, Miami is still the highest scoring team in the league with one of the best dual threat offenses.

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Tua Tagovailoa has two of the best WRs in the league to throw to in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, with a supporting cast that has accounted for six of his nine passing touchdowns. De’Von Achane is a revelation, averaging an insane 11.3 yards per carry in two games vs. Denver and Buffalo with four rushing and two receiving touchdowns. Yet Raheem Mostert still leads this backfield with impressive numbers of his own: 5.2 yards per carry with seven total touchdowns. He’s one of seven backs to have exceeded 100 receiving yards through four games.

All this is to say that Miami will have plenty of choices when it comes to beating the Giants on Sunday. The Giants are the lowest scoring team in the league (11.5 points), allow the third-most points per game (30.5 points) and with a terrible substitute for an offensive line, poor Daniel Jones is getting sacked 5.8 times per game. The offense is totally unable to find a rhythm, and even the miraculous return of Saquon Barkley in Week 5 wouldn’t be enough to salvage this offense.

Is there any reason to not use Miami here? They do get Carolina in Week 6. After that, though, it’s Philly, Kansas City, New England and a bye. If you think you can get by without them this week, be sure to pencil them in for next.

Week 5 contrarian pick

Adam: Bengals over Cardinals

It is wild how quickly things can change in the NFL. Four or five weeks ago this would have looked like the easy chalk pick for the week and now I am talking about it as a contrarian pick. But something is clearly not right with the Cincinnati Bengals.

Quarterback Joe Burrow does not look like he is 100 percent healthy after a calf injury in training camp, they are 1-3 and already playing for their season, and have shockingly failed to score a touchdown in two of their first four games. Maybe you can give them a pass for that in Week 1 because of the weather and it being Burrow’s first game back after missing almost all of training camp and all of the preseason. But Sunday in Tennessee? In near perfect weather conditions? Against an average team? Something isn’t right.

Add in an injury to one of his top targets (Tee Higgins) and it is a tough situation.

But I still have to imagine that Burrow and Co. can piece something together against an Arizona team that, while frustrating to play against this season and showing more fight than most would have expected, is simply not very good. I am going to dig into the subjective side of my brain here and believe that the Bengals have to know this is a must-win game if they are going to have any shot at turning this season around and do enough to beat a bottom-tier team.

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If they don’t, Bengals fans will have way more to worry about than being eliminated from their survivor pool.

Renee: Lions over Panthers

I really wanted to be more contrarian than this, but it turns out I’m kind of a wuss. I find it impossible to give advice that I wouldn’t follow to others. To this end, I tried to talk myself into Denver vs. the Jets, but I just kept coming up short in the pros column while having too many significant cons. If you take a wide view of the term contrarian, maybe I can make you believe Detroit fits the bill even though they might be the most-picked team this week.

The Lions are 3-1, facing a winless Panthers unit, and the spread has them strongly favored at home (-9.5 points). However, they’re not doing it the way we figured they would. Instead of just being one of the highest scoring teams in the league, it’s their defense that has come to the rescue more often than not. In fact, they look like one of the more balanced teams across the league, allowing only about 20 points per game, while scoring about 26 points per game. They’re tied for sixth with an average of 3.3 sacks per game and lead the league with only 60.8 rushing yards allowed per game. Carolina wants to be a pass-first team, with the third-highest pass play percentage and above average number of completions, but they’re all short and ineffective pass completions averaging 5.4 yards, second-worst mark in the league. (You know who they’re ahead of? Cincinnati…that must change for Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase to pull out the W this week.)

OK, so this isn’t a contrarian pick, but it’s still a good one. Let’s remember that it’s better to be basic and alive than creative and out when it comes to Survivor.

(Photo of De’Von Achane: Peter Joneleit / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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